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We specialize in understanding, interpreting, forecasting and communicating clearly about the consumer sector of the U.S. economy. Information on the consumer sector is invaluable to fixed income as well as equity managers, strategists, hedge funds and corporations.
Our approach is unique: Instead of working from the top down, we forecast from the bottom up. We very thoroughly and conscientiously examine every nook and cranny of the consumer sector so we understand it better than anyone else. We research company information as well as macro economic data, and we track the industrial sector as well as world trends. We then communicate in a form you can understand that is appropriate for the task you are trying to accomplish.
You need to know this information for a simple reason: the consumer accounts for over two-thirds of domestic U.S. economic activity. Add housing, which we consider a consumer item, and you've got 75%. The truth is, those who focus mostly on industrial production, exports, and whatnots are missing a major piece of the picture. In order to make an informed decision about anything sensitive to the economy you have to understand the consumer. And our goal is to assist our clients to make informed decisions.
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Our focus has helped Economic Analysis Associates become Wall Street's foremost organization providing research on the consumer sector of the economy and related securities to the investment community and to corporations.
Our forecasts have been recognized for their accuracy, including accurate T-bill and Treasury bond rate forecasts, and best overall forecast, including interest rates and GDP. While these accolades may not recur often (remember, most economists aren't even right once), they confirm the value added of our consumer-based approach.
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We provide coverage of all the important areas, including but not limited
to:
• employment,
• income & spending
• housing & construction
• confidence
• saving, credit & debt
• taxes
• regional trends
• inflation
• interest rates
• demographics
• autos
• cycles
• revisions
• more
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Detailed coverage means economic information you can integrate with
your investment philosophy, bounce off your analyst or company, test your
thought pattern, challenge the consensus. This information can help you
make a decision.
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(1) Written research reports.
Written material is purposely brief, to the point, understandable
and relevant. We publish three on a regular basis:
The monthly Consumer Monitor
deals with issues which are, or will be, of interest to our
clients, especially topics that are or will soon become important
to the decision making process. Current consumer behavior
is analyzed and explained and issues relevant to the outlook
are discussed. Read a recent Consumer
Monitor.
Momentum Charts tracks unit,
price and nominal sales in approximately 140 areas of consumer
spending. This is an excellent indicator of shifts in final
demand that will affect company performance. Extensive inflation
information is of value to bond as well as equity investors.
Quarterly chart book, monthly fax. Read a Best
of Momentum summary or look at some detail.
(2) Faxes. Our faxes
are full of pictures, usually about a page in length, and
are designed to provide quick enlightenment. We fax when relevant
information is at hand, usually weekly. Download a sample
FAX.
(3) The telephone. More
accessible and easier to arrange than a visit, we're here
to take your calls. If you prefer to go over a "hand out"
over the phone that can be arranged.
(4) Office visits. If
you choose this option, we'll show up in your office with
a "hand out," 15 to 20 pages of pictures, some of which we've
published before, most of which we haven't, and spend an hour
or so educating you about the current and expected state of
the consumer. Of course, we're there to answer your questions.
View a Hand Out.
(5)
The Internet.
Our entire research archive is available. Weekly faxes
and the Consumer Monitor are delivered by email.
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The real key to our service is personal contact. It is our policy to be available to answer your questions at any time and respond quickly to special requests. We find that the longer we work with a client the better able we are to tailor our service to your particular needs -- something we are willing and anxious to do.
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SUSAN M. STERNE -- President & Chief Economist
Mrs. Sterne's thirty year Wall Street career has been devoted
to understanding, forecasting and interpreting the consumer
sector of the economy. Before founding Economic Analysis Associates
in 1979 she was with various Wall Street houses including Goldman,
Sachs, Cyrus J. Lawrence and Salomon Brothers where she was
vice president in charge of all consumer research. Mrs. Sterne
began publishing the monthly Consumer Monitor in 1975
while working as an economist in the research department of
Faulkner, Dawkins & Sullivan. She has served as an advisor
to the U.S. Department of Commerce and is a member of a number
of professional organizations including The Conference of Business
Economists, the National Association of Business Economists,
the NYSSA and AIMR.
LAWRENCE J. STERNE -- Director of Research
Mr. Sterne's career has spanned over on-quarter century on Wall
Street. Before joining Economic Analysis Associates in 1983
he was vice president of Chemical Bank in New York, which had
more than $8 billion of client funds under management at the
time. He has also worked for Cyrus J. Lawrence, Reyonolds Securities
and The Northern Trust Company. Throughout his career, Mr. Sterne
has been responsible for setting the policy and directing the
specific securities selections for a broad cross-section of
industries, consumer as well as industrial. In the early 1980's
he was named the second most knowledgeable buy-side paper &
forest products analyst in an Institutional Investor
poll of the sell side.
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Lawrence J. Sterne
Telephone: (203) 869-9667
Economic Analysis Associates, Inc
Fax: (203) 896-9549
5 Glen Court
Greenwich, Connecticut 06830-4505
E-mail: lsterne@eaainc.com
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